Crecimiento Económico y Migración Internacional en el Norte de Centroamérica

Autores/as

  • Nestor Adolfo Torres Betanco Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Palabras clave:

Centroamérica, Migración internacional, Crecimiento económico, Variables instrumentales

Resumen

En las últimas dos décadas, la tendencia migratoria en los países del norte de Centroamérica (Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala y Nicaragua) ha ido al alza. Actualmente el stock de migrantes de estos países totaliza 25.4 por ciento de su población en edad de trabajar, con un flujo anual que alcanza cerca de 0.3 por ciento de la población total. A la luz de distintas perspectivas teóricas que tratan de explicar el fenómeno de la migración, este estudio investiga el efecto que tiene el crecimiento económico, aportando evidencia causal a la escasa literatura empírica que aborda el problema. Usando datos de panel, luego de controlar la endogeneidad mediante Variables Instrumentales, los resultados indican que un choque negativo de 1 por ciento en el crecimiento económico, produce un aumento de entre 1.1 y 2.2 puntos porcentuales en el crecimiento anual de la migración. La evidencia indica que, en ausencia de guerra, es el crecimiento económico el factor que más influye en la migración en estos países.

Citas

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Publicado

2021-12-10

Número

Sección

Artículo de Investigación